Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 4.639717 5.493103 6.438249 7.559672 8.850814 10.287532 12.003937
2025-05-25 3.091394 4.159113 5.476224 7.206828 9.405520 12.088988 15.593151
2025-06-01 2.259205 3.395585 4.932487 7.131098 10.157415 14.132830 19.697097
2025-06-08 1.713942 2.843068 4.498664 7.046863 10.799646 16.038913 23.798870
2025-06-15 1.445855 2.610559 4.439598 7.432003 12.090342 18.922035 29.507663
2025-06-22 1.178556 2.307776 4.200033 7.477135 12.845297 21.077316 34.359489
2025-06-29 0.967990 2.046984 3.968554 7.476145 13.495134 23.104093 39.178123
2025-07-06 0.800147 1.821687 3.749216 7.445480 14.066995 25.034604 43.992876
2025-07-13 0.745143 1.802350 3.893111 8.064282 15.796292 28.980177 52.360686
2025-07-20 0.658336 1.696222 3.850926 8.327362 16.917647 31.998359 59.435637
2025-07-27 0.590513 1.615419 3.842578 8.647237 18.166473 35.329678 67.290163
2025-08-03 0.506693 1.477082 3.689458 8.653125 18.816554 37.648310 73.555038
2025-08-10 0.411894 1.290573 3.404898 8.359961 18.880251 38.963059 78.250479
2025-08-17 0.327186 1.106399 3.090148 7.953373 18.668505 39.750903 82.073456
2025-08-24 0.274934 0.996653 2.929876 7.863434 19.095093 41.786594 88.375552
2025-08-31 0.231299 0.898781 2.778869 7.769010 19.495499 43.797804 94.779005
2025-09-07 0.215095 0.882695 2.838131 8.187853 21.068064 48.283233 106.311745
2025-09-14 0.187216 0.818803 2.754341 8.236686 21.805666 51.111041 114.751999
2025-09-21 0.161789 0.754924 2.657283 8.235487 22.424091 53.734967 122.961936
2025-09-28 0.139198 0.693527 2.554439 8.202034 22.959209 56.219365 131.053791
2025-10-05 0.137130 0.712821 2.702845 8.875946 25.283373 62.757472 148.003210
2025-10-12 0.125693 0.689633 2.712490 9.162303 26.673734 67.335529 161.098860
2025-10-19 0.116592 0.673488 2.742150 9.510368 28.254586 72.451862 175.658479